FOREX-Dollar gains against euro on Deutsche Bank fears, falls vs Mexican peso

Dear Viewers Updates for US. dollar,

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar rose against the euro on Tuesday after concerns surrounding Deutsche Bank caused general unease over Europe’s banking sector, while the Mexican peso rallied on short-covering after the first U.S. presidential debate.

Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) shares hit a record low on Tuesday a day after Germany’s biggest lender said it had no need for German government help with a $14 billion U.S. demand to settle claims it missold mortgage-backed securities.

The euro was last down 0.29 percent at $1.1220, easing from an 11-day high of $1.1278 touched on Monday.

Concerns that capital levels at European banks in general need to be strengthened contributed to the euro’s weakness, said Marvin Loh, senior global markets strategist at BNY Mellon in Boston.

The perception among market participants that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s performance in the first U.S. presidential debate was superior to that of Republican candidate Donald Trump boosted the peso MXN=.

The currency had touched a record low of 19.92 pesos against the dollar on Monday on concerns that a Trump victory would threaten Mexico’s exports to the United States, its single biggest market.

The outcome of the debate led investors to cover peso short positions, said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corporation in New York.

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed speculators had recently ramped up their bearish bets against the Mexican currency.

The dollar was last down 2.2 percent against the peso at 19.4310 pesos after hitting an 11-day low of 19.4048 pesos in early trading. The dollar was on track for its biggest daily percentage drop against the peso since mid-February.

Relief that Clinton’s performance was viewed as superior also likely helped the dollar gain against the euro given uncertainty surrounding a potential Trump presidency, Franulovich of Westpac said.

Markets have tended to see Clinton as the candidate of the status quo, while few are sure what a Trump presidency might mean for U.S. foreign policy, international trade deals or the domestic economy.

“You might argue that currencies like the yen and the euro had a defensive quality about them that were benefiting from Trump risk,” he said.

The dollar was last flat against the yen at 100.32 yen JPY= after falling 0.7 percent against the Japanese currency on Monday. The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.15 percent at 95.443.

ALGIERS Iran rejected on Tuesday an offer from Saudi Arabia to limit its oil output in exchange for Riyadh cutting supply, dashing market hopes the two major OPEC producers would find a compromise this week to help ease a global glut of crude.

WASHINGTON The Federal Reserve should avoid raising interest rates too much, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Tuesday, adding that gains in U.S. incomes are a sign that workers are benefiting from a tighter labor market.

NEW YORK U.S. single-family home prices rose slightly less than expected on an annual basis in July, and the year-over-year gain was smaller than in the prior month, a survey showed on Tuesday. Thanks.

FOREX-Dollar gains after inflation data suggest more hawkish Fed

Dear Viewers,

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar hit a more than two-week high against a basket of major currencies on Friday after U.S. inflation data boosted bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December, and touched a one-month high against sterling on worries over Britain’s Brexit vote.

The U.S. Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month. In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 1.1 percent. The figures beat expectations of economists polled by Reuters.

Traders’ expectations of a rate hike from the Fed at its meeting next week rose slightly to 15 percent from 12 percent on Thursday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch program, while expectations for December rose to nearly 52 percent from just over 47 percent.

The inflation data suggested a greater probability of a December move from the U.S. central bank and a quicker pace of rate increases next year, analysts said.

“It’s lining up nicely for the Fed to tie a bow on this year and give us that 25 basis point hike just before the holidays,” said Stephen Casey, senior foreign exchange trader at Cambridge Global Payments in New York.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.8 percent to 96.063 .DXY. The euro EUR= hit a 10-day low against the dollar of $1.1149, while the dollar hit a two-week high against the Swiss franc CHF= of 0.9817 franc.

Sterling hit a one-month low against the dollar of $1.3001 GBP= after Bloomberg reported that Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond was “ready to accept” that Britain may have to give up membership of the European Union’s single market, citing unnamed officials. The currency was last down 1.7 percent at $1.3015.

Hammond said in mid-July that Britain would leave the single market as a result of its decision to leave the EU. Britain voted to exit the EU on June 23.

“It’s just a sign that Brexit comes at a cost,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at Credit Agricole in New York.

The dollar was last up just 0.25 percent against the yen at 102.35 yen JPY= ahead of the BOJ’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.

The dollar index was on track to post its best week in three, with a gain of about 0.8 percent, but the greenback was set for its second straight weekly loss against the yen, of about 0.3 percent.

NEW YORK The possibility of a $14 billion fine for Deutsche Bank and a slide in oil prices hit financials and energy stocks on Friday, leading most global stock indexes lower.BRUSSELS The Federal Reserve is set for a lively debate in the coming week and could give a clear signal of an interest rate rise to come even if it follows market expectations for a pause this month.NEW YORK Crude oil prices fell 2 percent on Friday to multi-week lows as swelling Iranian exports reinforced fears of a global glut, while gasoline rallied on refinery and pipeline outages. Thanks. 

UPDATE 9-Oil prices dip, erasing earlier gains; down 10 pct on week

Dear Viwers,

NEW YORK Crude oil prices erased earlier gains Friday to fall for a fifth day and were poised for a weekly decline of 10 percent amid global oversupply and a bleak demand outlook that made it hard to guess when the market would find a floor.

Futures of global benchmark Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude turned direction after trading steady earlier on the strength of stocks on Wall Street. The two crude benchmarks hit 12-year lows earlier in the week after a plunge in China’s stock market roiled global markets.

Since the selloff in oil began 18 months ago, traders and investors have wondered how long and deep the slide would be as prices fell from above $100 a barrel to below $40, looking to break below $30 next.

Goldman Sachs added to the bearish sentiment on Friday by releasing notes from an energy conference in Miami it hosted this week between oil producers and investors that concluded producers weren’t ready to cut enough output at current prices.

“We believe we need to see sustained low oil prices in late 2015/1Q 2016 so producers will move budgets down to reflect $40/bbl oil for 2016,” the Wall Street bank said in the note.

“Instead, producers spoke largely of their agility to spend within cash flow and, as described below, ramp up when needed. This hurt sentiment as investors came away concerned that companies were not being responsive enough.”

Brent LCOc1 was down 40 cents at $33.35 a barrel by 1:52 p.m. EST (1852 GMT). It hit a session low of $32.78, after sliding on Thursday to $32.16, the lowest since April 2004.

Brent was also on track for a weekly loss of about 10 percent, not far off the 11.2 percent drop in the opening week of 2015, which was a record loss for oil in the first full trading week of any year.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 slipped by 33 cents to $33.60 a barrel. It fell to a session low of $32.64, after hitting $32.10 a day ago, the lowest since December 2013.

“It is extremely difficult to forecast the exact bottom,” Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

“The sentiment is still extremely negative and short positions are still at excessive levels. So, downside risks still remain. That makes it also hard to pinpoint the timing of the expected recovery.”

ABN Amro cut its 2016 Brent and WTI price forecast to $50 per barrel from its prior view of $65 and $60, respectively.

The dollar was up 0.4 percent after the U.S. Labor Department reported a greater-than-expected 292,000 new nonfarm jobs in December. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil less affordable for holders of the euro and other currencies.

U.S. stock indexes .SPX .DJI seesawed as market tumult in China eased. [MKTS/GLOB]

“In my view, crude is still just a number on screen with little implications for most of the people and computers that are actively trading,” said Scott Shelton, energy broker and commodities specialist at ICAP in Durham, North Carolina.

“It will keep going down until the equity world stops selling off.”

The options market indicates concerns oil prices can fall further. Some investors are acquiring put options giving them the right to sell at $25 a barrel, anticipating that Brent will fall below that, and the costs of those options are soaring.

Over the past year, the world has been producing 1.5 million barrels a day more oil than it consumes. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency expect global demand growth to slow in 2016 to around 1.20-1.25 million barrels per day from a very high 1.8 million bpd in 2015. Best of Luck.

FOREX-Dollar gains over 9 pct against basket of major rivals in 2015

Dear User,

NEW YORK The dollar ended 2015 with a more than 9 percent annual gain against a basket of currencies on Thursday, despite falling in December, with portfolio rebalancing from asset managers leading the currency higher in thin trading.

Riding a rally dating to May 2014, the greenback has appreciated by a quarter in value against a basket of currencies and by 22 percent against the euro. For the year, the greenback rose over 10 percent against the euro for its second straight yearly gain.

On Thursday, the euro hit a more than one-week low against the dollar of $1.08530, with analysts attributing the move to purchases of dollar-denominated assets from money managers moving to meet minimum exposure requirements.

“Portfolio rebalancing absolutely has something to do with the dollar’s strength,” said Sireen Harajli, currency strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd in New York, referring to Thursday’s gains.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, hit a more than one-week high of 98.750. For the month, it fell 1.5 percent, its first decline in four months.

Against the yen, the dollar hit a more than two-month low of 120.005 yen. Analysts said weaker-than-expected U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index data boosted the safe-haven Japanese currency. For the year, the dollar eked out a 0.4 percent gain to mark its fourth straight yearly rise against the yen.

The dollar has advanced this year on views that the Federal Reserve’s start to its cycle of interest rate increases, combined with steadily loose monetary policy from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, would continue to bolster the greenback.

The Fed increased rates for the first time in nearly a decade earlier this month and projections from Fed policymakers indicated that they expect four more increases next year.

Analysts said that divergence in monetary policy would remain a theme at least into the first quarter of 2016.

“The Fed could come back with a second hike in March, which is not fully priced in, and the dollar should draw fresh support from that,” said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac in New York.

The dollar was last up 1.3 percent against the Swiss franc at 1.00150 franc after hitting a more than three-week high of 1.00240 franc.

The dollar rose 0.7 percent against the franc for the year to mark its second straight yearly gain. Thanks.

US STOCKS-Indexes look set for small gains as crude recovers

Dear Viwers,

U.S. stock indexes held on to small gains in early afternoon trading on Tuesday as crude oil prices recovered slightly and data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a fairly healthy clip in the third quarter.

Trading volumes are expected to be relatively light this week, with U.S. stock markets operating a shortened session on Thursday and closing on Friday for Christmas.

Brent crude prices were up marginally, a day after they slid to their lowest levels since mid-2004, but gains were limited due to global oversupply concerns and tepid demand for heating oil in what is likely to be the warmest winter on record.

The S&P energy sector was up 1.58 percent, leading the 10 major sectors on the index. The sector has been the worst performer in 2015, falling about 24 percent so far this year.

Chevron shares were up 1.1 percent at $90.27, while Exxon was up 0.7 percent at $77.74.

“I think the main thing that markets are going to be looking at today is the whole deal with oil,” said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive, Tuttle Tactical Management in Stamford, Connecticut.

The U.S. Commerce Department trimmed third-quarter GDP growth to a 2 percent annual pace from the 2.1 percent estimated earlier.

At 12:23 p.m. ET (1723 GMT), the Dow Jones industrial average was up 80.07 points, or 0.46 percent, at 17,331.69, the S&P 500 was up 6.92 points, or 0.34 percent, at 2,028.07 and the Nasdaq Composite index was up 0.04 points, or 0 percent, at 4,968.97.

“It feels like there’s not a whole lot going on today in the world of trading,” said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst, Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

Forrest said energy and materials stocks were most likely higher due to bargain hunting.

Caterpillar was up 4.2 percent and provided the biggest boost to the Dow. The stock has shed more than a fourth of its value this year.

Chipotle Mexican Grill was down 4.4 percent at $499.26 after Federal authorities said they were investigating a new strain of E. coli linked to the burrito chain.

Ford was up 2.7 percent at $14.13 after Automotive News reported that the automaker was in talks with Google to help build self-driving cars.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,917 to 1,039. On the Nasdaq, 1,457 issues fell and 1,252 advanced.

The S&P 500 index showed three new 52-week highs and six new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 26 new highs and 48 new lows.

Good Luck.